Forex Analysis & Reviews: 08.05.2019 - Escalating US-China Trade...

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08.05.2019 12:10 PM

Escalating US-China Trade Conflict Increases Demand for Safe Assets

The yen has updated a six-week high against the dollar. Growing concerns about the trade dispute between the United States and China are forcing investors to seek refuge and increase the value of safe assets. The trade surplus, which is a major irritant for Washington, increased to $ 21.01 billion in April compared with the previous month, which could provoke a violent reaction from US officials. The threat of further escalation of the tariff war again becomes real, and at the same time it is simply impossible to predict the scenario of what is going on, either positive or negative. The focus is on the negotiations that happened last Thursday and Friday in Washington, where the vice-premier of China will try to save the deal, which will avoid a sharp increase in tariffs on Chinese goods.

Prospects for the escalation of disagreements between the US and China led to the growth of the yen in recent days, the currency since the beginning of the month has risen against the dollar by more than 1 percent at the moment. Unlike the yen, the currencies of countries whose economies are closely intertwined with the Chinese are rapidly becoming cheaper. The fall of the New Zealand dollar has accelerated the decision of the Central Bank to reduce base interest rates from 1.75 percent to 1.5 percent.

Although the euro has grown by 0.1 percent, to 1.1213 dollars, it remains within the limits of the recent narrow ranges, since currency traders still have not decided on the inflation prospects of the euro zone economy and the latest events on the front of a trade war. The European Central Bank is likely to keep a close eye on the resumption of the escalation of trade war, since the real economic consequences may be more than significant and will affect its monetary policy.

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