विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 03.07.2019

03.07.2019 12:00 PM

Risky assets under attack: the Bank of England is pressing on the pound, the euro is waiting for Lagarde

Once again, the dollar was under pressure because of hopes for at least a temporary trade deal between the United States and China faded and restored the demand for safe assets. The yield on US government bonds fell to the lowest levels since the end of 2016, following the British bonds, which are under pressure from the loud comments of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney. Against a basket of six major currencies, the dollar index fell slightly to 96.697 points. The pound remained stable at $1.2592 after a decline of 0.35% a day earlier, when it reached a two-week low of $.2584. Mark Carney said that the global trade war and the distressed Brexit increases the risks for the British economy, which may need additional help to cope with the crisis.

The dollar against the yen fell by 0.3% to 107.580 yen, after reaching a 12-day high of 108.535 yen at the beginning of the week. The euro has stabilized and is trading at $1,1291 after a volatile session on Tuesday when it fluctuated between a minimum of 1.1275 dollars and a maximum of 1.1322 dollars. The single currency has risen after the media reported that the ECB plans to cut interest rates at a meeting in July. However, the mood changed later after IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, who adheres to the "dovish" strategy, was nominated for the post of head of the ECB. True, the basic "needs" of the eurozone will remain the same - it needs higher incomes and a weaker currency, therefore, the ECB is unlikely to expect dramatic policy changes even with Lagarde.

The Australian dollar remained at the same level of 0.6991 to the US dollar. Recall that the Australian rose after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates but offered a more balanced outlook. At the G20 summit in Japan, Washington and Beijing agreed to resume trade negotiations after US President Donald Trump offered concessions. Yet, investors are cautious about the chances of resolving a trade dispute between the two largest economies in the world, especially given Trump's recent breakdown of negotiations and comments that any deal not in favor of the US should be rejected. The general background was also overshadowed by Washington's threat of additional duties on goods from the European Union in the amount of $4 billion during a long-standing dispute over aircraft subsidies.

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