विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 18.04.2022

18.04.2022 02:57 PM

Soaring inflation raging across world!

High inflation has become a thorny issue beyond the US. The phenomenon is crippling the whole global economy, forcing central banks around the world to take sweeping measures. Indeed, major central banks have embarked on aggressive monetary policies. The joint efforts aim to curb high inflation worldwide. President of New York Federal Reserve Bank John Williams said in an interview with Bloomberg Television that raising interest rates in May would be an appropriate policy move.

He also expanded on the timeline for normalizing interest rates, saying that the regulator has to nudge the official funds rate to more neutral or normal levels. By the next year, the Federal Reserve is expected to get back to normal interest rates. It means that nominal loan expenses, excluding inflation expectations, should come to reasonable levels.

According to the CME FedWatch instrument, the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates at least by 25 basis points at the May policy meeting is measured at 91.06%.

The hawkish stance of the Fed's monetary policy aimed at pushing down the highest inflation rate in the last 4 decades is not intrinsic to the US watchdog. Reuters acknowledges that other central banks are also determined to combat soaring consumer prices. New Zealand and Canada have already increased their key policy rates by half a percentage point. In contrast, last week the ECB unveiled its plans to scale back monetary stimulus throughout the year, albeit refraining from any rate hikes.

Central banks in various counties are dealing with runaway inflation. Among them are New Zealand, Canada, the UK, the US, Australia, Sweden, Switzerland, and Japan. The global headwind requires joint efforts from monetary authorities around the world. At the same time, they are aware that escalating jitters in Ukraine are putting a lid on their monetary policies which have to be adjusted for geopolitical uncertainty.

Nevertheless, central banks admit that the geopolitical conflict is mainly to blame because soaring inflation emerged as the fallout of the war. It has dealt a devastating blow to global expenses on food supplies and energy. They will hardly decrease as long as the conflict goes along. Even with interference of central banks, simply raising interest rates will not cut demand for basics such as food and energy which account for the core of ongoing inflationary pressure.

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