विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 29.11.2022

29.11.2022 03:51 PM

US premarket on November 29, 2022: US stock indices recover amid weakening risks

US stock index futures closed in negative territory amid statements made by representatives of the Federal Reserve. However, index futures surged early on Tuesday, as rumors of growing unrest in Chinese cities due to Covid restrictions began to ease gradually and authorities began to act faster by easing quarantine measures.

So far, the Chinese government has made no definite statements on plans regarding further easing of restrictions and no concrete steps to open up the world's second-largest economy. Beijing has promised to step up vaccination of elderly citizens, which is considered a key step for ending the cycle of strict Covid Zero restrictions. A spokesman for China's National Health Commission also said that local authorities should avoid excessive restrictions.

Nasdaq high-tech futures rose by 0.5%, while S&P 500 futures also increased after a drop of about 1.5% on Monday. US-listed Chinese stocks such as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and JD.com jumped in premarket trading, while KraneShares CSI China Internet Fund went up by more than 6% after Asian markets spiked.

As mentioned above, fears over new waves of protests against COVID-19 quarantine measures in China have begun to fade. Now, the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy is in the spotlight. The president of the Fed Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, said that higher labor demand, stronger household spending, and slightly higher core inflation suggest a continued high policy rate compared to September. His counterpart, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who is considered one of the central bank's most hawkish officials, also said that markets slightly underestimate the risk that the FOMC will have to continue a more aggressive policy course, rather than a less aggressive one. This policy is necessary to keep ongoing inflation in check, and to beat price growth in the future.

Despite this, many economists and market participants expect the Federal Reserve to shift to a slower pace of rate hikes, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to provide more details on this tomorrow. If that does not happen, or if a different outlook is announced, the markets could be in for another drop. However, Powell is expected to remind Americans that the fight against inflation will continue until 2023.

US Treasury bonds continue to signal a recession as the yield curve inversion persists.

Crude oil rebounded from its lowest level in nearly a year amid speculation that OPEC and its allies will resort to supply cuts in response to weakening global demand.

As for the technical picture of the S&P500, it failed to return above $4,000 yesterday. That will be the main goal for today. Furthermore, bullish traders will have to defend the support level of $3,968 that they almost lost yesterday. As long as the index will be above this level, demand for risky assets should increase. That would allow the instrument to consolidate and regain $4,000 and $4,038. Slightly higher is the level of $4,064, a breakout of which will make an upward correction to the resistance level of $4,091 more likely. The most distant target is $4,116. If the S&P 500 moves down, bulls will have to act near $3,968, as the pressure on the index will only increase below this level. A breakout below this range will quickly push the trading instrument down to $3,942, and it will also open the way towards testing the support at $3,905.

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