विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 16.01.2024

16.01.2024 02:31 PM

Hedge funds are selling their gold, but there is no bearish sentiment

According to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the volatility of interest rates in the USA is affecting gold prices. Hedge funds have reduced bullish positions, but any significant bearish positions are still not being opened. Despite gold managing to stay above $2,000 per ounce, a change in market dynamics in the near future may put pressure on prices. Currently, the precious metal lacks a catalyst for growth.

According to the CFTC's weekly Commitments of Traders report, it's evident that on the Comex, asset managers have reduced their speculative long positions in gold futures by 20,051 contracts, to 134,333. At the same time, short positions increased by just 639 contracts, to 45,874. The precious metal holds a net long position of 88,459 contracts. However, since there are no clear indications or actions regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the market remains fairly stable. There is a 70% probability of an interest rate cut as soon as March.

Economic data from America does not yield any results for gold to determine its direction. Investors have reduced positions as Federal Reserve fund futures were sold off, and doubts arose regarding the timing and scale of the anticipated rate cut. Labor force data indicates that inflationary pressure continues. And since the core consumer price index significantly exceeds the target figure of two percent, an immediate easing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy seems unlikely.

Nevertheless, chaos has resumed in the Middle East. U.S. and UK military are bombing Houthi militants in Yemen. Consequently, geopolitical demand for safe-haven assets should continue to support gold prices above $2,000 per ounce.

In the silver market, there is more compromise. Investors are increasing bearish positions while simultaneously liquidating bullish ones. According to the disaggregated report, long speculative positions in Comex silver futures decreased by 6,032 contracts, to 32,392. At the same time, short positions grew by 1,677 contracts, to 24,044. Now, the net long position in silver stands at 8,348 contracts.

Silver, like gold, is facing difficulties due to market volatility related to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, plus concerns about the global economy continue to rise. A potential global recession could weaken industrial demand for silver. However, it's important to remember that the transition to green energy and the demand for solar energy will remain a strong foundation for silver's strength even in a recession.

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