Analisis Forex & Kajian: 18.03.2025 - Market catches fish in muddy...

18.03.2025 12:18 PM

Market catches fish in muddy water

Chaos in the White House's economic policy has pushed the S&P 500 to the brink. The broad stock index briefly entered correction territory before rebounding with two consecutive days of gains.

According to UBS, pullbacks in stocks traditionally create buying opportunities. The surge in political uncertainty hit the market at a time of extreme optimism when positioning was excessively bullish. By the end of March, these factors have largely been priced in.

While the share of bearish retail investors has surpassed bullish sentiment for the first time in months, institutional players are betting on a rally in the S&P 500. Evidence of this can be seen in the declining cost of hedging against a 10% drop in the index, compared to the cost of hedging for a 10% rise, which has hit its lowest levels since March 2023.

Hedging costs for S&P 500 swings

In addition to macro fundamentals and corporate valuations, institutional investors closely track market sentiment. When sentiment worsens, it often creates optimal conditions for buying.

Historically, after the 10 worst years for investor sentiment, the S&P 500 rebounded with an average annual return of 18.7%. Meanwhile, the average return was a mere 0.4% in the 10 most optimistic years.

Given this trend, 2025 may not bring spectacular gains for US equities, but volatility will be significant.

What's driving the current rebound in the S&P 500?

The current bounce is fueled by two key factors:

* Trade war concerns have temporarily eased. Investors are now waiting for early April when the White House is expected to implement reciprocal tariffs.

* US macroeconomic data indicates a cooling economy but not a collapse: a scenario that investors seem to welcome.

In February, retail sales rose by just 0.2% month-over-month, falling short of Bloomberg's consensus forecast of 0.6%. January's figures were revised downward, showing a 1.2% decline, though poor weather was largely to blame.

US retail sales trends

Markets reacted positively to the fact that retail sales did not contract for a second consecutive month, as this would have signaled a GDP contraction in Q1. With recession fears still looming, even a modest uptick in consumer spending helped ease market anxiety, providing support for the S&P 500.

Meanwhile, as Donald Trump focuses on ending the armed conflict in Eastern Europe, trade war fears have taken a backseat—a positive development for the broad stock index.

Technical outlook: S&P 500 rebounds off six-month lows

On the daily chart, the S&P 500 has bounced off a six-month low, making the long position from 5,645 a successful move. The strategy remains to hold long positions, targeting resistance levels at 5,750 and 5,815, with a potential reversal setup in case of rejection.

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