Forex Analysis & Reviews: 01.03.2022 - American premarket on March...

01.03.2022 02:47 PM

American premarket on March 1: Russian authorities restrict the exit of foreign investors from Russian assets

US stock index futures are showing a decline in trading on Tuesday, as investors continue to monitor the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. If yesterday there was still hope that "passions will settle down a little" - the market reacted with growth to the negotiations between the two countries, today, on the contrary, there is a negative trend. Following the meeting, progress was made and the positions of the two sides were outlined. Negotiations are expected to continue in the near future. Dow futures fell 215 points or 0.6%. S&P 500 futures fell 0.7% and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.8%.

The decline in index futures occurred after news broke that satellite cameras recorded a convoy of Russian military vehicles, which is heading to Kyiv. Against this background, the shares of financial companies began to lose their positions very quickly: Bank of America securities fell by 2%, Citigroup - by 1.8%, and Charles Schwab shares - by 1.5%. The Big Box retailer's securities rose 10% after reporting earnings of $ 3.19 per share, which beat Wall Street estimates.

Treasury bond yields remain largely unchanged. 10-year bonds have recently fallen to 1.7% - the lowest since January 24. Bond yields are falling amid growing demand for them due to the military conflict. Bonds are in demand as safe-haven assets.

As for the energy market, futures have gained a lot at price: West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose by 3.3% to $ 98.87 per barrel, and Brent crude oil rose by 3.8% to $ 101.68. Natural gas also rose by 2.2%.

Today, there was news that Shell is selling a 27.5% stake in Sakhalin-II, an oil and gas project located on Sakhalin Island in Russia, as well as a 50% stake in Salym Petroleum Development NV. "We are shocked by the loss of life in Ukraine as a result of a senseless act of military aggression that threatens European security," said Shell CEO Ben van Beurden. Shell also announced that it was ending its partnership with Gazprom due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Let me remind you that Shell's announcement was made the day after BP announced that it was getting rid of its 19.75% stake in Rosneft.

According to the latest data, a bill has already been submitted in Russia that will limit the exit of foreign investors from Russian assets, and this applies not only to shares. This was announced by the Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Mikhail Mishustin. Let me remind you that yesterday, the central bank of Russia doubled its key interest rate and raised it to the level of 20%. This happened because of the sharp collapse of the Russian ruble after the West imposed tough sanctions against Moscow.

According to the results of yesterday, the Dow Jones industrial index lost almost 170 points. The S&P 500 fell 0.24% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.4%.

The Russian-Ukrainian crisis will continue to cause market volatility, but its direct impact on the corporate earnings of companies should be small. However, the indirect risks associated with a full-scale military conflict are becoming more significant.

Let me remind you that investors are also preparing for speeches by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at his semi-annual House Committee hearings, which begin on Wednesday.

As for the data, the February index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from Markit will be published today, as well as the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from ISM for February.

As for the technical picture of the S&P 500

The pressure on the index remains, but the demand is still quite high. Today, the bulls will try to gain a foothold above $ 4,341. If this fails, the pressure on the trading instrument will increase, which will lead to a decrease in the area of $ 4,292. A breakdown of this range will increase the pressure on the index and return the bear market with the prospect of updating the lows already: $ 4,233 and $ 4,175. Fixing above $ 4,341 will leave hope for a market recovery, however, what will happen at the regular session today is a big question. With growth, we can expect new active sales already in the region of $ 4,383 and $ 4,433. A lot will depend on the further development of the conflict on the territory of Ukraine and the possible dialogue between the presidents of the two countries.

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Jakub Novak,
Chuyên gia phân tích của InstaForex
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